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Euro oh Euro…..

Euro, Pound continuing losses as a global Dims Outlook, although the yen increased Talk of intervention

Euro fell below 1.2400 against the dollar for the first time since April, 2004 sinking to a low 1.2333 before seeking support. Talk of more bank failures, the problems of Hungary and Ukraine and other speculation has been coordinated rate cut Stoked fear the long global decline traders who have fled from risky assets to the people from government bonds, especially U.S. treasuries.
Euro fell below 1.2400 against the dollar for the first time since April, 2004 sinking to a low 1.2333 before seeking support. Talk of more bank failures, the problems of Hungary and Ukraine and other speculation has been coordinated rate cut Stoked fear the long global decline traders who have fled from risky assets to the people from government bonds, especially U.S. treasuries. The drop in confidence was evident in the German IFO reading fell to 90.2 from 92.9, which is the lowest level in more than five years.

German banks have remained stubborn and have been reluctant to take government assistance because they look to preserve their autonomy. Fear has been growing problems arising in the markets in Eastern Europe will add another anchor has been decreased to Euro-Zone economy. This resulted in the German finance minister Steinbrueck urging the bank to receive aide before they experience further losses. This is the mentality that this blunt cause recession to Europe as it has continually underestimate the level of impact from the credit crisis. Economists are calling on the ECB to take advantage of them have room to lower interest rates, as the benchmark stood at 4.25%. Overnight index swap rates are now at 117 bps cut from the central bank more than the next twelve months. Euro can continue to see as a loss of confidence in Europe’s leaders to act quickly enough to avoid further damage is dwindling.

Pound, which will dip below the 1.5300 level as the price of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown hinted further relaxation with this comment “Now, if actual inflation for several months and that means that he will provide the opportunity for all monetary authorities, including the Bank UK, throughout the world to make decisions about interest rates, “the UK economy is now clearly in recession with a 0.5% contraction in the third quartet and the expectation that the next two will be weak. The housing market continues to fall with Hometrack reporting that house prices fell the most since 2001. We may see Pound Friday to test a low of 1.5257 to rest here for further declines as the market is now pricing in another worth 198 bps discount rate, according to Credit Suisse Overn9ight index swap. A failure to break below this level could signal a short term bottom in May and where we can see a retracement extended.

The yen continued to increase the return on risk-hatred that sent shares plunging overnight in Asia and Europe with the Heng Seng experienced a loss of 12%. The yen continues to set fresh 13 years of the dollar and has been back below 114 versus Euro. A weak open in the United States in May fuel this sentiment as the Dow futures are down more than 200 points.

Dollar continues to be the beneficiaries of the worldwide flight to safety as concerns mount a global recession. Despite expectations of rate cut of at least 50 bps of dollars continue to get as speculation increased that world leaders will use the upcoming FOMC policy meeting as an opportunity to launch another coordinated rate cut. Although lower interest rates may not have a typical impact, the market call for further relaxation and fed Chairman Bernanke has not been disappointing. Funds that are fed Futures prices in the 74% reduction of 50 bps opportunity and 26% to 75 bps. As the equity market continues to decrease the attractiveness of U.S. treasuries increased, fueling the demand for dollars. The U.S. economy, despite the horrendous fundamentals are still seen as the best position to the first exit from the crisis, which continues to be supportive factors for the dollar

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Forex Market Snapshot

Introduction

The following facts and figures relate to the foreign exchange market. Much of the information is drawn from the 2007 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in April 2007. 54 central banks and monetary authorities participated in the survey, collecting information from approximately 1280 market participants.

Excerpt from the BIS:

?The 2007 survey shows an unprecedented rise in activity in traditional foreign exchange markets compared to 2004. Average daily turnover rose to $3.2 trillion in April 2007, an increase of 71% at current exchange rates and 65% at constant exchange rates?Against the background of low levels of financial market volatility and risk aversion, market participants point to a significant expansion in the activity of investor groups including hedge funds, which was partly facilitated by substantial growth in the use of prime brokerage, and retail investors?A marked increase in the levels of technical trading ? most notably algorithmic trading ? is also likely to have boosted turnover in the spot market?Transactions between reporting dealers and non-reporting financial institutions, such as hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds and insurance companies, more than doubled between April 2004 and April 2007 and contributed more than half of the increase in aggregate turnover.? - BIS

Structure

  • Decentralised ?interbank? market
  • Main participants: Central Banks, commercial and investment banks, hedge funds, corporations & private speculators
  • The free-floating currency system began in the early 1970?s and was officially ratified in 1978
  • Online trading began in the mid to late 1990?s


Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007

Trading Hours

  • 24 hour market
  • Sunday 5pm EST through Friday 4pm EST.
  • Trading begins in New Zealand, followed by Australia, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and America

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