In U.S. dollars, in his view during the last week, as swaps Overnight Index signal that traders expect the Federal Reserve increased rates 75 basis points over the next eight FOMC meetings. However, the next version of non-agricultural wage list is expected to show that the loss of jobs for the seventh consecutive month, while the unemployment rate in the United States is expected that the success of 4 years high by 5.6 percent. What are the chances that their salaries outside of agriculture as the list is even worse than expected, and most importantly, how these effects of dollars?
What is the market during the month of July non-farm expected salary list?
Change in non-farm salary list for forecasts of 75K, 62k return
Unemployment rate: 5.6% 5.5% forecast
Change in the list of salaries of manufacture: forecasting 40k, 33k return
Average hours and wages: 3.4% expected, 3.4%
Average weekly hours prediction of 33.7, 33.7 previous
Of the 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the optimistic forecasts of First Trust Advisors, which calls for the reduction of jobs 10k. In the most pessimistic, once again, ING financial markets, calls for the loss of jobs 150k. May economists expect a negative pressure, but the range of estimates is very large, meaning that dealers have to wait a strong U.S. dollar volatility and financial markets as a whole, on the back and non-agricultural wage list of publications.
To determine the strength of non-agricultural wages list, see Rule 10 pieces of data, which we consider as key indicators of non-agricultural wage list. Four of the ten versions indicate a greater loss of jobs, the rate of low wages outside agriculture in the context of reading a list of expectations. More specifically, the four-week moving average, the average number of initial applications of unemployed rose to a new credit of 5 years high, while claims rose by 6 percent to 3.3 million. On the other hand, consumer confidence has improved somewhat with the decline in oil prices from record levels, and the ADP employment report showed an unexpected rise in rents. We are absent, but three key indicators that we see - Manufacturing ISM, ISM services and job cuts Challenger - since it will not be sudden, the son later on Friday and the following week.
The arguments in favour of strengthening the non-agricultural wages List
1-ADP Employment Report unexpected increases 9k VS. Expect 60k
2 interruptions at work, all the time to zero, because no new strikes were declared
In 3 of the M, the Conference Board consumer confidence improved unexpectedly
The case for non-agricultural low-wage list
1 initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average jumps to new 5-year high
2 Continuing Claims Jump 6% to 3.3 million
3 Monster.com indicators decrease from 14% in July, a year ago
4-Online help wanted index falls for 5 consecutive month
All non-agricultural list of salaries more or less than in June?
Most of the major indicators of non-farm wages suggests that the list of July is the month of job loss, but it is unusual amount of uncertainty in this version special. Firstly, the two main indicators which are generally used as a general rule, most significantly - ISM ISM manufacturing and services - not just the lack of announcement of the list of agricultural wages, on Friday morning. This brings us to our point of view of employment in these two sectors is somewhat diffuse.
However, even if they are less reliable, the ADP report on employment is reflected unexpected net increase of 9000, thanks to the recruitment of workers and small businesses in the service sector, which can help relieve some hard work losses among manufacturers . Meanwhile, separate surveys of consumer confidence in the University of Michigan and the Conference Board in July markedly improved. However, see deeper in the Conference Board report shows that the mood in the labour market has deteriorated, with more jobs Americans say it is difficult to obtain. Accordingly, despite the lack of reliable indicators for the leaders of non-agricultural list of wages, the possibilities are clearly in favour of distortion, nor for a second tour in the gloomy data on employment.
Could nonfarm submitting a list of salaries of 100 k?
Non-US Farm report the list of salaries is one of the most critical for versions dollars in the U.S., not only because it moves in the market, but also because we can help, a broad indicator of prior economy of the road. Despite that GDP grew 1.9 percent in the quarter, 2 to 0.9 percent in the 1. Quarter, it is too early to say that the U.S. economy has managed to avoid a recession. A “recession” does not mean that GDP is negative, as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is defined as “a significant decline in economic activities are divided into the economy, more than a few months, normally Vidljiva GDP real in terms of real income, employment, industrial production, wholesale and retail trade. “One could easily argue that the fall in U.S. dollars of GDP and 4.8% 3. quarter of 2007 to -0.2 percent in the 4 quarter of 2007 and 0.9 percent to 1. quarter of 2008, “significant decline”. Compounding the fact that these figures are frequently revised, as the reading of -0.2 percent in the quarter 4 was initially reported 0.6 percent. Therefore, as well as the progress Q2 GDP reading is not the last word on economic growth.
Over the past 3 decades, the U.S. economy has 3 recessions, the NBER. In each of these 3 recessions, there were few job losses, left at least 10 months. So, far from non-agricultural products was reduced wages in the negative list for the last 6 months, July and a report is expected to be a census to 7 Some believe that the current slowdown in growth could be more stringent than the recession in the beginning of 2000, in connection with the triple blow of housing crisis, credit and skyrocketing prices of raw materials crunch. As if this were not enough, what are the chances of victory in favour of stronger job losses in the coming months, to the extent that each of the last 3 recessions, the largest of each month, supply is lost through 300k! In this context, we must invest 100 k in the coming months is not only possible but likely.
Trading company did not list the salary launch
Few economic indicators are so exciting for trade and the release of non-agricultural wage list for the American economy. Indeed, change is not on the list of agricultural wages during the month of July has identified a thing of the Federal Reserve, monetary policy and the fate of the dollar for the second half of 2008. Currently, the chances of the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at the August session of more than 93 percent. A dollar is rebounding in the days of non-agricultural wage report list, and if this is an important economic indicator surprises on upside risks under certain conditions, we see a sharp appreciation of the dollar in all major currencies. After Night Index Swaps, expectations of interest rates for the next twelve months, traders expect the Fed to raise rates 75 basis points over the next eight FOMC meetings. Rising interest rates in the dollar might be more attractive to foreign investors and increased demand for investments denominated in dollars, revenue in USD / JPY and losses in the EUR / USD.
